Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 22/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18383 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 069
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  006/008-016/022-020/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/55/55