Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 746 km/s at 22/1605Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 22/0308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3545 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 073
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 074/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  015/020-012/014-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/35