Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 22/0823Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/1235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1237 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 087
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/15/10