Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
March 22, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 757 km/s at 22/0834Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12337 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Mar).

 

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           22 Mar 122

Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 125/125/125

90 Day Mean        22 Mar 133

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  012/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  016/024

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  016/020-014/012-015/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/45/45

Minor Storm           25/20/15

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           25/35/30

Major-severe storm    60/55/55

 

SpaceRef staff editor.