Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 757 km/s at 22/0834Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12337 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 122
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 016/020-014/012-015/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar