Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0702Z from Region 2011 (S07W77). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar,
25 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550 km/s at
22/1736Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1521Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1222Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 Mar, 25
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (24 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 155
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 160/155/155
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 007/008-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/10
Minor Storm 01/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 20/40/20