Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/2204Z from Region 1692 (N09W85). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 494 km/s at
22/0239Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/2133Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1709Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 101
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 100/095/090
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 009/008-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/01/01
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 20/05/05