Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 22/0216Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/2244Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 066
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 006/005-005/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/15/30