Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 21/2218Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 080
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 080/080/078
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  006/005-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/35/25