Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 June 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to

21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at

21/0944Z from Region 2367 (S18W64). There are currently 2 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate

with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three

(22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

370 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/1853Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1912Z. Protons greater

than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at

21/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a

peak level of 1877 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (22 Jun), unsettled

to major storm levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet to active levels on

day three (24 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one

(22 Jun), are expected to cross threshold on day two (23 Jun) and are

likely to cross threshold on day three (24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun

Class M    75/75/75

Class X    20/20/20

Proton     99/90/70

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           21 Jun 136

Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 135/130/125

90 Day Mean        21 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun   002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  032/060-026/042-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/30/25

Minor Storm           35/40/05

Major-severe storm    50/25/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                01/05/15

Minor Storm           10/15/30

Major-severe storm    90/85/30