Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun,
24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 459 km/s at
21/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 153 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun) in response to a
series of transient passages.

III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 094
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 100/095/100
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 018/018-010/015-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/45/35
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/35/25