Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 22/1541Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 780 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 067
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/15