Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 21/2233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 182 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (23 Jul, 25 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 068
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  008/010-019/025-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor Storm           10/30/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    35/65/45