Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 21/2129Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 22/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 089
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 013/015-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 45/35/25