Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul,
24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 369 km/s at
22/1230Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2137Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0003Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (25 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 093
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/15