Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
21/2136Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1622Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4016 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 110
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 004/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10