Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2022

By SpaceRef Editor
January 22, 2022
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (23 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 22/0003Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4044 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 095
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 093/089/089
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/30

SpaceRef staff editor.