Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 22/0957Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1154 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 087
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 085/085/082
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10