Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 576 km/s at 22/0427Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2379 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 Jan, 25 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (24 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 101
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 015/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 008/008-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/20