Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/0452Z from Region 2268 (S10E67). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 544 km/s at 22/0141Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/2248Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 120
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 130/135/130
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 012/015-012/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
