Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 22/0102Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 095
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15