Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 22/0849Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at22/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2370 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 072
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 008/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25