Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/1327Z from Region 2638 (N19E35). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 22/0441Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1451Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 719 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 083
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 084/084/083
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  014/020-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/30