Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at 21/2125Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2331Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 118
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 120/120/130
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 008/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
