Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 February 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/1222Z from Region 1678 (N10W80). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (23 Feb) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (24
Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
433 km/s at 22/0435Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2321Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2138Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 15/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 107
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/10