Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 21/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 071
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 006/005-006/005-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25