Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 22/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3000 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 075
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  005/005-010/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/30/35
Major-severe storm    10/40/35