Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 22/0528Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8093 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 075
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 018/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 011/012-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/20