Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/0334Z from Region 2473 (S23E62). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 505 km/s at 22/0513Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/0908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1727 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 130
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 022/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 006/006-008/010-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/25