Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/0149Z from Region 2242 (S17W71). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 497 km/s at 22/1645Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 22/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 22/0120Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 21/2120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 80/75/75
Class X 35/30/30
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 179
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 175/170/160
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 013/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec