Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 22/0131Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 070
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 007/006-006/006-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25