Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 21/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10332 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 067
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  005/005-008/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/45/45