Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 22, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 22/0256Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0112Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 080
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 007/008-010/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.