Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0628Z from Region 2149 (N12E63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug,
25 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 22/1505Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0634Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0230Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 126
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 130/140/145
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05