Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 22/0043Z. Total IMF reached 5nT at 22/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 217 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 071
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10