Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 22/1922Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 22/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 22/1440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 544 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 077
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 080/078/078
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 023/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 012/016-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 30/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/45/25