Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/1137Z from Region 2035 (S13W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr,
25 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 554 km/s at
21/2307Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0250Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 22/1408Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Apr,
24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 50/40/30
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 145
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 007/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30