Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 21/1219Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 711 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 079
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 078/078/080
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/10/10