- Press Release
- Oct 2, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 October 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 21/0658Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct), quiet levels on day two (23 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 064
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 065/065/065
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 007/008-005/005-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/05/60