Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 21, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 21/1756Z from Region 2436 (N08E16). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 491 km/s at 21/1715Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/0937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 129
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 007/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.