Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 21/2027Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Nov, 23 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 085
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 085/087/089
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 016/018-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/45/25