Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 21/2016Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/1759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 071
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 012/016-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/30/25