Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 20/2300Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/1951Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1664 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 075
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 077/077/079
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 013/020-025/035-022/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/40
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20