Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/1324Z from Region 2454 (N13W40). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at 21/0139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 200 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 122
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 008/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20