Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to

21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at

21/0445Z from Region 2209 (S15W29). There are currently 3 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23

Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

440 km/s at 21/1637Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/1127Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1321Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 769 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23

Nov, 24 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days

one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

Class M    55/55/55

Class X    25/25/25

Proton     20/20/20

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           21 Nov 163

Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 165/165/170

90 Day Mean        21 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  014/016

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  012/012-010/015-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/30/30

Minor Storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    40/40/40