Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 20/2212Z from Region 3019 (N11E55). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic reached 7 nT at 20/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 931 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 May, 24 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).

III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 167
Predicted 22 May-24 May 162/165/163
90 Day Mean 21 May 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 007/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15