Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0138Z from Region 2071 (S12E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
21/1040Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1752Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/1827Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 May, 23 May)
and quiet levels on day three (24 May).

III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 114
Predicted 22 May-24 May 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 21 May 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05