Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 21/1911Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2112Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 21/0945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 098
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 008/008-010/012-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/40