Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 21/1958Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/1448Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2033 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 077
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 015/020-016/018-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/35/25