Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/0312Z from Region 2736 (N09W48). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar,23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to major storm levels on day two (23 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 080
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 080/080/077
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 005/005-015/024-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/40/30
Major-severe storm 01/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/75/70