Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/0312Z from Region 2736 (N09W48). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar,23 Mar, 24 Mar).
 
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to major storm levels on day two (23 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 080
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 080/080/077
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  005/005-015/024-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/40
Minor Storm           01/40/30
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/75/70