Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 21/0223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22143 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 069
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  014/018-012/016-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/45/55